GNOSIS 4/2011
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The Energy security in the Italian System |
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by Gilberto DIALUCE |
Access to energy and its utilization is the key driver for development, especially in terms of mobility and transport, industrial production, heating and cooling and electricity supply. Nevertheless, the growing need for energy at a world level implies, both for the producer Countries and for the consumer Countries, the necessity of facing also the relative implications in matters of security. Globalization, the demographic issue, the climatic change, the economic and political crises, as well as the technological advances, are rapidly changing the context of reference in which to ensure security in the broadest sense. Currently we are witnessing two great principal changes in the world Energy system: the change of the barycentre of the consumer areas, with an ever growing demand for Energy from emerging economic markets, among which China and India are prominent; the conditions imposed by the world attention to the environmental impact of energy consumption; growing pressures and interests are moving the political and technological orientation of the fossil fuels towards technologies at low carbon dioxide emissions. This change is particularly strong in Europe, but is emerging, although slowly, also in other geographical areas. If, on the one side, it opens new opportunities of growth for the “green” sectors in the economy, on the other, it also entails higher energy costs, due to incentives to support renewable energy development, which weigh on the final users and other productive sectors, with profound repercussions in the industrial structure. Energy security has, by now, become a global asset: the economic stability of producer Countries – generally having national oil companies, which depend largely on their Energy exportation for their income – and the consumer Countries – more or less industrialized, which need energy to maintain their development – ties one to the other through a network of infrastructures and multiannual contracts. Energy security, therefore, can no longer be considered separately, and the availability of sustainable energy prices becomes dependent, among other factors, on the policies conceived and implemented at the international level. In such a framework, Italy has always maintained good bilateral relations with the producer Countries and has encouraged the initiatives of cooperation at an International level in matters of stabilization and transparency of the Energy prices, like those which are carried out by the International Energy Forum, with the purpose of reducing the volatility of the prices. Italy has also promoted international cooperation on the technologies to increase energy efficiency, in which the creation of an international platform of technologies at low carbon emission plays an important role in the area of the International Partnership for Energy Efficiency Cooperation, particularly, at the G8 Summit in Aquila, as well as actions against the energy poverty in Africa, Italy has also fully supported initiatives such as the Energy Charter, promoting the cooperation between producer Countries, of transit and consumers of Energy, with the purpose of making it more responsive to the new concerns of the producer Countries which have emerged in recent years, and to turn it into a more constructive means of dialogue and Energy exchange in Eurasia.  EU - 25: dipendenza dall'import di energia (%) Energy security in Europe Since the dependence on the importation of gas is expected to increase from the 64% of 2010 to 83% by 2030 – this scenario is being revised as a consequence of the economic crisis – the Energy security in the European Union is principally associated with the supply of natural gas.  However, since 1990, Europe has considerably diversified its sources of gas importation: 80% of the growth of such importation comes from Countries such as Norway, Algeria, Nigeria and Countries of the Middle East.Consequently, the share of the total EU importations of gas from Russia has strongly decreased: it was 75% in 1990, 49% in 2000 and today has fallen to little over 34%, but with a very wide differentiation, which goes from 100% of the gross domestic consumption of gas in some Eastern Countries (Slovakia, Finland, Lithuania, Estonia) to 0% in those more Western Countries (Spain and Portugal).  Fonte:IEA natural gas information The development of the renewable sources of Energy production in Europe will certainly be highly relevant in the long run, but still does not significantly effect energy requirements in the short term. Therefore, if a higher level of energy independence is desirable as a means of reaching a greater energy security, this objective will not be fully achievable for Europe in the short and medium terms; this is due to the great importance that the hydrocarbon imports still have, and will continue to have, at least for some decades. Energy security in Italy According to the International Agency for Energy (IAE), the total supply of primary Energy in Italy will increase from its present level of 176 Mtep (million tons of oil equivalent) in 2010 to 232 Mtep by 2030.Compared to other EU Countries, Italy has two important external commitments in its Energy policy: - the first is constituted by its Energy procurement which is still based prevalently on its fossil fuels, from which, in 2010, 75% of the electricity production and almost 83% of the total supply of primary energy derived; - the second, the compliance with the Kyoto protocol and with the “climate and Energy package” of the European Union, which prescribes, by 2020, a reduction of 20% of the green house gas, (with respect to the 1990 levels); an increase in the average share of the renewable sources through the EU to 20% (17% for Italy), more than double the level of 2006, and a reduction of 20% of the consumption of primary energy through greater energy efficiency.  Fonte: Ministero Sviluppo Economico Italy has made considerable steps ahead towards these objectives, as recognized by the AIE (In-depth Energy Policy Review, 2009). At the end of 2010, with the increase of the installed capacity to 30,000 MW obtained, thanks to the incentive schemes for the renewable energy sources implemented in the preceding years, the production of electric energy from renewable sources has reached 25% of the total production. To reach the goal of 17% (by 2020) of renewable energy sources on the total consumption of final Energy, the possibility is foreseen of using also the flexibility mechanisms provided for by the Directive on the renewable sources, consisting in importing electric Energy produced by renewable sources from Countries not belonging to the EU. To this end a project has already been approved for an interconnection with the Montenegrin network to connect the Italian electric system to the Balkans and import electric energy from Montenegro, Serbia and other surrounding Countries. A project for an interconnection with the Tunisian network is also under evaluation. At the same time, it will be necessary to further implement the technologies of smart grids in order to integrate the renewable energy sources – highly variable and locally distributed – into the network and to remove some existing bottlenecks which restrict the exchanges of energy. In this sector Italy supports the International Smart Grid Action Initiative (ISGAN) – as co-leader of this project, together with the United States and Korea, for the purpose of developing this technology throughout the world. Strategia energetica nazionale After the nuclear referendum outcomes, it became necessary to redefine the guidelines of the National Energy policy, and also to envisage what the Italian Energy system will be beyond the year 2020, as requested in the European ambit. The issues to be coordinated are the future energy mix, with the parallel and strong complementary developments of the renewable sources and the Energy efficiency, and the diversification of the sources and the supply routes, with particular attention to the enhancement of the national resources and the amount of gas.  Activities are under way for the preparation of a document which, although operating in a context of a liberalized Energy market, must present the tools which the policy – with the collaboration of the other institutions involved in the energy sector – will implement until the energy operators can align their methods in a market perspective, so as to reach the goals of general interests as given in the strategy. Some documents have already been adopted in the ambit of the Community objectives assigned to Italy for 2020 (National plan of action on the renewable sources, Plan of action for Energy efficiency). Reports on the Energy state of the Country are being elaborated with an analysis according to baseline scenarios to 2030, which are able to define the requirements of the Country in terms of final consumption, and scenarios of a “strategy to 2030” type, which encompass the effects of the commitments on the renewable sources and on the emissions, the technological evolution and the choices already made, with projections up to 2050, which take into account the Prospective of the common European energy policy outlined in the Energy Roadmap up to 2050 developed by the European Commission. The aim is to arrive at an assessment of the needs, in terms of primary energy and the various Energy sources, of the supply, transformation, transportation and distribution infrastructures of the energy. The documents will start a consultation with the possible programming of a National Conference on Energy and Environment. Diversification of the routes and supply sources Italy has long pursued a policy of diversification of energy supplies, which has now led it to meet its hydrocarbon requirements through various sources: - the supplies of oil come from 30 Countries, although Libya and the former Soviet Union alone represent almost 50% of the importation. Before the crisis, in 2010, Libya was the principal supplier of the Italian market with a quota of about 23%; Russia is the second, with 15%; the Gulf region registered 7%; Iran 13%, Iraq 9%, Central Asia 18% (of which Azerbaijan is 14%), other African Countries (especially Egypt and Guinea) 7% and, finally, North Europe with 2%. The national production presently covering 6% of the consumption is on the increase and able to increase to 15%, with obvious advantage also in terms of security of the supplies where the investments programmed by the petroleum societies of Basilicata are authorized;- the consumption of natural gas, which has progressively reduced the demand for oil over the last twenty years, has almost doubled from 1990, and has made this source of energy the principal generating source of energy of the Country. The importation of gas covers almost 90% of the national consumption and comes from a vast gamma of Countries. In 2010, the principal supplier Country was Algeria (37%), followed by Russia (30%), Libya (13%), Qatar (9%), Holland (6%), Norway (5%), Croatia and other Countries with lower supplies. The national production, which covers almost 10% of the consumption has, during the last two years, begun to grow and could reach up to 15%, thanks to the development of important, recently discovered gas deposits. In fact, the Italian reserves of hydrocarbon are evaluated at 120 billion cubic meters of gas and 250 million tons of petroleum, but an extremely complicated procedure of environmental evaluation and local opposition often impedes the activities of exploration and production.  The Libyan crisis together with that of Syria and the forthcoming developments of the sanctions in Iran show, however, the opportunity of a new policy of encouragement to develop the national research and production activities, also through specific agreements with the regions concerned, as has recently happened for the petroleum projects in Basilicata, where the largest offshore gas deposits in Europe are to be found. The underground gas storage – essential to increasing the security of the supplies – is in the process of being enlarged, with an average growth capacity of 10% per year. Its present capacity is 14.7 billion cubic meters and increases of over 4 billion cubic meters are foreseen within five years in 10 depleted deposits located mainly in North Italy. A further action is in progress for the development of regasification terminals of liquid natural gas (LNG), which allows for the enlargement of the market of supplies, taking the opportunities at world level as well as regional and a greater flexibility regarding the gas pipelines. Two terminals are in operation at Panigaglia and in the Adriatic offshore. In 2012, a third will be installed in the Tyrrhenian Sea and the construction of a fourth should be started in Sicily. In January of this year, two other terminals at Gioia Tauro and at Falconara Marittima were authorized.To strengthen the security of the Energy supplies, the supply routes are no less important than the origin of the Energy products themselves. The Italian energy policy has always been aimed to encourage the interconnections and the integration of the Energy markets in the Balkans and the Mediterranean region, and to propose Italy as a platform for exchange and transit of energy for the benefit of the European and Italian security of supplies. If, in fact, a risk exists whereby a supplier Country could close or divert the export of their petroleum or gas towards other Countries, the events of recent years demonstrate that interruptions or obstacles could arise also from Countries of transit. Therefore, a system consisting of the most articulated interconnections possible, storage fields and, in an emergency, networks able to guarantee the inversion of the gas flows, constitutes the best guarantee for the continuity of gas supplies in Italy and Europe. With the commencement of the so-called “3rd package of the liberalization of the European market”, approved by the European Union and incorporated by Italy in June 2001, this Country is performing its part towards the completion of the internal market. It is, in fact, opportune to accelerate progress towards the realization of a single European market of energy; rather than remaining anchored to “national” solutions, it is more convenient to focus on an integrated European market of gas through the reinforcement of the stocks and interconnections, the harmonization of the regulations between the various European Countries, particularly, through the Association of the Authorities of regulations of the gas and electricity of the single Member States (ACER, based at Ljubljana), as well as an integrated transport system managed by independent operators. Europe needs to invest in the elimination of the bottlenecks like the physical congestion in the transport of energy, the capacity of flow reversals and the increase of storage volumes, so as to have a totally integrated market and network. One of the causes of the dramatic impact caused by the dispute between Russia and the Ukraine on the Energy security in South-East Europe was the lack of interconnections and the physical possibility of reversing the gas flows between certain Member Countries. Italy has developed a model of interdependence – rather than a mere dependence – with the supplier Countries, in order to make the bilateral relations with these Countries more “sustainable” in the long term, by balancing the energy supply with the exportation of other products; with transferring technology and investments necessary for its ‘partners’ to improve their productive capacity, and finally, with the direct entry of the Italian energy companies into the production activities of hydrocarbon and energy generation in the same producer Countries. This model is useful both to strengthen the negotiating position of Italy as a potential Energy “hub” in the Mediterranean, and to establish a mutually advantageous relationship between the energy companies on both sides, taking into account the “asymmetries” existing in the energy market, in particular, the different natures of the actors involved (public property or State managed in the supplier Countries and almost entirely private in the European consumer Countries). Thanks to the new recently constructed and enhanced infrastructures, the present importation capacity in Italy is already far greater than its annual consumption (and this helped the management of the Energy system during the Libyan crisis and during the interruption of the gas transit pipeline in Switzerland). In a continuously evolving scenario such as that of the Energy market, this tendency must be further reinforced through the development of: - other projects of LNG terminals;- pipelines that carry gas from North Africa (GALSI) and from the Caspian Sea (in particular, the ITGI – Turkey – Greece – Italy Interconnection) to Europe; - capacity of inversion of the flows to the connection points with the European internal networks; - enlargement of the storage capacity, not only for the purpose of security of the supplies, but also to create greater gas trading possibilities; - supplementary electric interconnections with Africa and the Balkans. At the present time, Italy is developing the first pilot projects within the EU with regard to the cooperation with the MENA Countries and the Balkans on the production of renewable Energy and its transport to the Italian market (solar energy from Morocco through Spain and Tunisia to Italy; hydroelectric energy from Serbia, Montenegro and Albania). In the medium term, the best option remains that of reinforcing the Italian geostrategic position for the gas supplies, by means of developing the existing transport infrastructures and those already scheduled. In this way, Italy can perform its growing role of “energy hub” between Africa, Central and East Europe and Asia, thus increasing the energy security for Europe and the Mediterranean Basin, although the situation of tension in the Middle East and North Africa – fundamental areas for energy supply – will require a careful monitoring to assess the possible security implications related to its development.  Italia hub europeo del gas The author advises
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